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Let’s get one thing straight. Every time Palantir’s stock (PLTR) goes on a tear like this,... Let’s get one thing straight. Every time Palantir’s stock (PLTR) goes on a tear like this, hitting a new all-time high, my inbox explodes with two types of people: the true believers who think Alex Karp is the second coming, and the panicked skeptics convinced it’s the biggest house of cards since WeWork.
Right now, the believers are taking a victory lap. And why wouldn't they? The stock chart looks like a rocket launch.
But I’ve been doing this too long to get swept up in the euphoria. Hype is cheap. Revenue is not. And on November 3rd, we’re all going to find out which one Palantir is actually running on.
The Holy Grail or Just Holy Hell?
You have to hand it to them, the PR machine is firing on all cylinders. They just inked a massive deal with Lumen Technologies, and CEO Alex Karp, never one for understatement, called it "the holy grail for businesses." He claims it’ll make AI data processing "200x faster."
Two. Hundred. Times. Faster.
What does that even mean? Is that like my internet provider promising "up to" 1 gigabit speeds while I sit here watching a buffering wheel? These kinds of numbers are meaningless without context. They’re marketing slogans designed to make your eyes glaze over and your hand reach for the "buy" button. The deal is real—a cool $200 million—and so is the new letter of intent with Poland's Ministry of National Defense. Palantir is digging its tentacles deeper into NATO, becoming the go-to data spook for the Western world. It’s a brilliant, if slightly terrifying, business model.
Then you get the cherry on top: Oracle’s Larry Ellison, a ghost of tech past, materializes to validate Palantir’s entire existence. He says AI needs private data to be valuable, not just the public junk scraped from the web. It's a perfect soundbite, a blessing from one of the industry's old gods. This is the story they're selling: Palantir isn't just a software company; it's a critical piece of infrastructure for the future of corporations and governments. And offcourse, the market is eating it up with a spoon. It's a compelling narrative. No, 'compelling' doesn't cover it—it's a masterclass in corporate myth-making.
The Numbers Are Starting to Look Nervous
So, the story is perfect. The stock is soaring. The big-name contracts are rolling in. Everything's great, right?
Well, here’s where it gets interesting. While the cheerleaders are popping champagne, the nerds with the spreadsheets are starting to sweat. The bean-counters over at Zacks have put out their analysis, and it’s a beautiful mess of contradictions. On one hand, the consensus, detailed in reports like Palantir Technologies Inc. (PLTR) Earnings Expected to Grow: Should You Buy?, is that Palantir will report a 70% year-over-year jump in earnings per share and a 50% surge in revenue. Insane growth.
But then you look closer, at a little metric they call the "Earnings ESP." It stands for Expected Surprise Prediction, which is already the kind of jargon that makes me want to throw my laptop out a window. It essentially compares the broad consensus estimate with the most recent estimates from analysts—the ones who supposedly have the latest intel.
And Palantir’s ESP is negative. Deeply negative, at -5.88%.
This is the market's equivalent of a poker player with a great hand who suddenly starts twitching. It means that as the reporting date gets closer, the analysts who are supposedly "in the know" have been quietly lowering their expectations. While the public is buying the "holy grail" story, the so-called experts are hedging their bets. It’s a glaring crack in the flawless facade.
Now, Palantir has a history of beating estimates three out of the last four quarters. So are they just masters at managing Wall Street's pathetic expectations, setting a low bar they can easily clear? Or is this negative revision a genuine sign that the growth engine is sputtering, that the big-money contracts ain't translating to the bottom line as cleanly as everyone hopes? We're told to trust the trend, but the trend is being revised downward behind the curtain, and we're all just supposed to nod along like—
It’s a total crapshoot.
Place Your Bets, Suckers
Here's my take. Forget the technical analysis, the ESP readings, and Alex Karp’s turtleneck philosophy sessions. Investing in Palantir right now isn't about fundamentals; it's a bet on a narrative. You're either betting that the company's story of becoming the central nervous system for the modern world is true, or you're betting it's the most overhyped, opaque software company on the planet. The November 3rd earnings call is just the next chapter in that story. They could beat every estimate and the stock could still tank if Karp says the wrong thing. They could miss and the stock could soar if they announce another shadowy government contract. The whole thing feels less like investing and more like a seat at the high-stakes table in Monaco. Good luck to anyone who thinks they know which way the ball will bounce.