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Rivian's Rollercoaster: Q3 Win, But Are We There Yet?Okay, Rivian. Another quarter, anoth... Rivian's Rollercoaster: Q3 Win, But Are We There Yet?
Okay, Rivian. Another quarter, another chance to prove they aren't just burning cash in the desert. So, the stock dipped 5.23% before jumping back up in after-hours trading. Classic Rivian, am I right? A friggin' rollercoaster.
They beat revenue estimates, which is... fine. I mean, congrats on selling more expensive toys to rich people, I guess. $1.56 billion, up 78% year-over-year. Sounds impressive until you remember they're still hemorrhaging money. Oh, and they missed earnings per share estimates, posting a loss of 96 cents when everyone expected 85. So, win some, lose some? More like, lose slightly less than expected?
And this whole "momentum" thing that AMD, Super Micro Computer, Upstart Holdings, Pinterest And Rivian: Why These 5 Stocks Are On Investors' Radars Today - Benzinga are babbling about – Rivian's in the 58th percentile. Seriously? 58th? That's like getting a C- in business school and throwing a party. Pathetic.
The R2 Hype Train: 2026? Seriously?
Now, let's talk about this R2 model, supposedly coming in 2026. 2026! That's like, a million years from now in tech years. By then, we'll all be driving flying cars powered by unicorn farts, and Rivian will be trying to sell us a slightly smaller, slightly cheaper version of the same damn truck.
I'm sorry, but are we really supposed to be impressed that they're "on track"? What does that even mean? On track to be delayed? On track to be overpriced? On track to have even more panel gaps than the R1T? Don't even get me started on the R1T... I saw one the other day, parked outside a yoga studio, looking all shiny and virtuous. And I thought, "Yep, that's about right. A $80,000 virtue signal."
Then again, maybe I'm the crazy one here. Maybe everyone else is drinking the Kool-Aid and thinks Rivian is the next Tesla. But let's be real, Tesla actually, you know, makes cars at scale and turns a profit offcourse.
Software Surge? Or Just Smoke and Mirrors?
Okay, here's where it gets interesting – or at least, where Rivian's PR team wants it to get interesting. Software and services revenue surged 324% to $416 million. Wow, sounds impressive, right? What are they selling, exactly? Over-the-air updates that fix the problems their shoddy manufacturing created in the first place? Subscription services for heated seats? I'm being cynical, I know. But give me a break. Show me some real innovation, not just nickel-and-diming your customers.
What's the breakdown on that $416 million? How much of it is actual software sales versus service contracts versus, I don't know, selling Rivian-branded coffee mugs? The lack of transparency is deafening. And that 52-week range of $9.50 to $17.14? That's a wider swing than my mood on a Monday morning. It screams volatility, uncertainty, and a whole lot of investor jitters.
So, What's the REAL Story?
Rivian's got a long, long way to go before they can claim victory. They're burning cash, missing earnings estimates, and promising the moon with a product that's still years away. The revenue beat is a nice headline, but it doesn't change the fundamental problem: they need to prove they can build cars efficiently, reliably, and at a price that doesn't require a second mortgage. Until then, it's all just hype and hope.