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FAA Cuts Could Be Lakeland Linder's Gain: Avelo's Next Move?The FAA's mandated 10% flight... FAA Cuts Could Be Lakeland Linder's Gain: Avelo's Next Move?
The FAA's mandated 10% flight reduction at 40 major airports, including Orlando (MCO) and Tampa (TPA), throws a wrench into airline operations. Avelo Airlines, with its existing presence at Lakeland Linder International Airport, finds itself in an interesting position. The stated goal of the FAA is to mitigate disruptions, but could this actually create an opportunity?
Avelo's official statement is predictably cautious: assess, adjust, minimize disruptions. Standard corporate speak. Airport Director Kris Hallstrand's comments are more intriguing. She mentions working "to make ourselves available as an alternative airport." This suggests Lakeland Linder is actively pitching itself as a solution to Avelo's potential scheduling headaches.
Lakeland Linder's Key Advantage: Uninterrupted Air Traffic Control
The crucial difference lies in air traffic control. While the FAA shutdown is impacting staffing at major airports, Lakeland Linder's tower is operated by RVA Robinson Aviation, a contractor whose agreement remains active. This means no disruption to air traffic control services—a significant selling point when airlines are scrambling to maintain schedules. Hallstrand also notes the dedication of the TSA staff, even unpaid. It's a good PR move, but the real question is sustainability. How long can unpaid personnel maintain peak performance?
There's no hard data available (as of Nov. 6) on how this will specifically impact flight numbers at Lakeland Linder. But let's think this through. Avelo has eight destinations from Lakeland Linder, none of which are on the list of 40 impacted airports. This gives them a stable base. If Avelo is forced to cut flights from Orlando or Tampa, shifting some of that capacity to Lakeland Linder makes logical sense—provided the economics work. Could FAA cuts to Orlando, Tampa airports result in more Avelo flights to Lakeland Linder?
The Big Unknown: Passenger Demand and Cost
Here's the rub: passenger demand. Lakeland Linder isn't Orlando or Tampa. Will passengers inconvenienced by flight cancellations at MCO or TPA be willing to drive to Lakeland? That depends on price sensitivity and the perceived value of avoiding travel disruptions. Avelo's business model is built on low fares. If they can offer significantly cheaper flights from Lakeland Linder, they might attract enough passengers to offset the added inconvenience.
And this is the part of the analysis I find genuinely puzzling. We're missing crucial data on Avelo's operating costs at Lakeland Linder versus Orlando or Tampa. Landing fees, ground handling, marketing expenses – these all factor into the equation. Are the savings from operating at a smaller airport significant enough to justify the potential drop in passenger volume? Details on Avelo's internal cost-benefit analysis are, unsurprisingly, not public. But if Lakeland Linder is offering incentives (reduced fees, marketing support), the equation could shift in their favor.
The TSA officers operating out of Tampa International Airport are in a tough spot. They have not been paid since the shutdown began Oct. 1. Hallstrand's praise is nice, but doesn't pay the bills. It’s admirable that they're maintaining a positive attitude, but this situation highlights a vulnerability. A prolonged shutdown could lead to decreased morale and, potentially, security lapses. While Hallstrand claims passenger safety isn't suffering, that claim needs independent verification.